We'll see...

Like most farmers and ranchers, I suspect, I have multiple weather apps on my smartphone. My favorite, mostly because it taps into very local amateur observations, is Weather Underground. I find that the forecasts aren't any more accurate than any other app - I think all of them rely on the National Weather Service. But when I'm away from home, I can look at my Weather Underground app and see what my neighbor is observing in the way of weather conditions. According to Weather Underground, we're supposed to be in for a rain-soaked, windy weekend. We'll see....

Like anyone who works outside, I pay attention to the weather. Like anyone who works with livestock, sometimes the weather doesn't matter - the livestock guardian dogs still need to be fed, the sheep still need to be checked. With high winds forecast for this weekend, we'll also need to check the condition of our electric fences - soggy soils and falling tree limbs can be a problem. The National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory for tomorrow. But we'll see....

As another shepherd once told me, every year is the same - except it's different. The 2018/2019 water year is no exception. I was so excited when we got a germinating rain in early October - and so disappointed when it didn't rain again until the week of Thanksgiving. While we've measured close-to-normal precipitation since October 1, the timing of our storms has meant that we don't have much green grass on our annual rangeland at the moment. With the ewes transitioning to late gestation (and higher nutritional requirements), we're a bit concerned about forage conditions. So we'll see....

Ultimately, for all of our improvements in forecasting the weather, we're still only able to look about 2 weeks out. At this point, I feel like anyone who says we're in for a normal year - or for a drought - is full of... something. This uncertainty is why most ranchers are conservative (not necessarily politically, but certainly agriculturally). This is why most of us say, "We'll see...."