Everything is on the Table

I used to refer to the drought we lived through in 2012-2015 as our “historic drought” - the most severe drought my generation of Californians would face. And then came 2021. The precipitation we received in 2019-2020 water year was well below average; our 2020-2021 precipitation total is the lowest since we’ve lived in Auburn (less than 19 inches total). Depending on who you ask, these last two years have been the driest ever here in the foothills. In sheepherder terms, it’s pretty damn dry here in Auburn.

The Sierra snowpack is equally disappointing. The warm, dry autumn we experienced in 2020 resulted in incredibly dry mountain soils - the snow that did fall last winter either evaporated or soaked in this spring. Very little of last winter’s snow ended up in our reservoirs. The dry winter and spring meant below-average forage production on our rangelands; the lack of runoff might mean an early end to our irrigation season. In other words, we may have lower forage production on our irrigated pasture to match the lower forage production on our annual rangelands. Our fall grazing plans look pretty bleak at the moment.

Even in our smaller-scale, part-time sheep operation, we probably can’t afford to feed our way out of drought. Taking the sheep to the forage is always cheaper than taking the forage (e.g., hay) to the sheep. That said, we’ll be taking a close look at feed prices over the next month or two. Our other option is to sell some (or even all) of our sheep. The lamb and ewe markets are at historic highs right now - this might be the year when get out of the sheep business, at least temporarily.

None of these options are attractive to me. I much prefer to graze our sheep on the grass we’ve grown, rather than feed them hay grown by someone else. Selling any of our ewes is equally unattractive. Our sheep fit our landscape; our genetic program has created a ewe flock well-suited to our environment and our management. We can’t simply go to the auction and buy ewes that fit our operation.

Over the next 6-8 weeks, we’ll put pencil to paper and figure out which option makes the most sense. We’ll look at the cost of hay and other feed stuffs. We’ll consider whether we can be profitable at a smaller scale. And we’ll think about selling out. Every option is on the table. But we’ll also think about where we want to be when this drought ends. Can we maintain our genetic base? Are there other ways we can harvest forage from our annual rangelands and irrigated pastures? These are big decisions; decisions that our ranching colleagues all over California are going to be making this summer. For many of us, this will be the drought that defines our ranching operations, I suspect.