Pretty Damn Dry

I want it noted that I made it 10 days into 2021 before I complained about the dry weather! Just don't talk to my family or my friends or my fellow ranchers - I've been complaining to them all along! In all seriousness, though, this year's version of drought is starting to look pretty serious. Normally by this time (whatever "normal" is), we've measured over 12 inches of precipitation (with an average total through the end of January of over 16 inches). To date, we've measured just under 6 - and with no rain in the forecast at least through January 24, I don't think we'll catch up by the end of the month.

We're better off than some, I suppose. We have some green grass where the sheep are grazing, and we've had enough moisture to keep the grass growing (albeit slowly) through our lambing season (which is just 7 weeks away). We can (and have been) hauling water to our sheep; many of my cattle ranching friends don't have that option. And since the soil isn't saturated yet, the seasonal creeks aren't running and the stock ponds aren't filling.

The U.S Drought Monitor says we're in "severe drought" - which equates to "moderately dry conditions," apparently. I've seen conditions this dry in January twice since I've lived in Auburn - in 2014 and again in 2015. The 2013-14 rainy season was among the driest on record; the 2014-15 snow pack was pathetic. In both years, the Drought Monitor classified our region as being in "exceptional drought" - the most severe category. We'll end January 2021 ahead of where we were in 2014, but that's small consolation. I suspect Auburn will be a deeper shade of red on the drought map soon.

So what do we do? No matter how hard we try, we've never been successful in making it rain! If we can't manage the supply side (that is, rainfall and forage), we'll have to look at our demand side (the number of sheep mouths we need to feed). Through a series of decisions we've made over the last year about where to graze and how many sheep to keep in our flock, we're reasonably confident that we'll have enough grass to make it through lambing. We'll move back to irrigated pasture in April, and we're fairly certain we'll get enough water to keep those pastures green, as well. Our worry now turns to next fall. With short grass during lambing, we may need to graze more of our rangeland pastures than normal before we ship pairs to pasture this spring. Without much rain, we may not get much regrowth on these rangeland pastures, which we depend on for forage in November and December.

Our basic options are to find additional grazing land for next fall, or to reduce our flock size even further before we get to that point. We'll probably look at a combination of these options, and we'll try to be strategic about the sheep we keep! Anything that doesn't bring in a lamb this spring - she's on the trailer at weaning! Anything that gives birth to twins, but can only count to one? Bye-bye! That ewe that lost some teeth or developed mastitis? She's gone, too.

During a year like this, I'm grateful that shepherding is a part-time business for me. My family doesn't depend solely on the income we earn from sheep. That said, these decisions are difficult. The ewe that I may need to sell this spring is the result of breeding decisions I made when we started in the sheep business more than 15 years ago. While I can't afford to be sentimental, I do look at our current flock like an artist might look at his or her body of work. These sheep fit our landscape and our forage resources; I can't simply go to the auction and by the same sheep when we have a good year.

Fortunately, we've learned from our experiences seven years ago. The hardest day for me in 15+ years of raising sheep was the day I hauled 30+ pregnant ewes to the auction in Escalon in January 2014. The lessons we've learned since have helped us prepare for a year like this. We'll make it through....